A look at the colder change for Texas next week….

There has been something of a monotonous flavor to Texas weather of late. Lots of cloudiness, but few cases of rainfall. Temperature routinely mild, but the heat of the summer and early fall is long gone. Next week we sweep out any trace of warmth and prepare for what may be a cold intrusion that will be stronger than what was seen around Halloween.

The driving mechanism for the Arctic regime moving through the Lone Star State will be warming in Alaska and northern Canada. The formation of blocking ridges above the Arctic Circle will shove the colder profiles there southward, eventually reaching into central Mexico in about ten days from now. There could be a rain event in the eastern half of Texas as the cold move sin, but most model guidance suggests that the serious precipitation will be from Arkansas and Louisiana north and east.

Following the ECMWF ensemble platform, I think we will see another cold air mass pass through the eastern two-thirds of North America in the first week of December. If the general upper air pattern holds, we follow that cold with two weeks of mild/warm conditions as we get ready for the Christmas/New Year holidays.

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