Will Cold And Storms Continue To Avoid The West?

I make this remark because the numerical models have again trended away form delivering a big, El Nino style storm and cold pool to California and the West in general. Usually in warm, basin-wide ENSO environments there is a split flow and southern branch storm track that will see cooler than normal temperatures in the Golden State. But aside from a lingering disturbance off of the Pacific shoreline, the chances for significant rain and mountain snow have dwindled moving through the next three weeks.

This is important because it speaks of increased ridging across the Desert and Intermountain Regions, a modest +PNA signal that will be working in tandem with the -EPO blocking ridge in Alaska. This effectively sets up a “warm West vs. cold Central/East alignment. Until a storm undercuts the high latitude ridge, the pattern can go on for days. Following the ECMWF ensemble and the CFS weeklies, it may not be until December 6 or so that moderation will set in across the lower 48 states. This will be a fairly long stretch of time that will be supportive of both cold air, and storms across the eastern two-thirds of North America.

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