An active weather pattern in North America, to be sure. But what about cold chances?

In prior discussions, I have talked about the chief contributors to weather, which are all showing up now on satellite imagery and numerical model guidance. First and foremost is that low-latitude subtropical jet stream, which runs from the equatorial Pacific Ocean through Mexico and up into the American Southeast. Stronger impulses moving along this STJ imply ongoing chances for rain in Texas. This southern branch also has a connection over the central Atlantic Ocean that will fuel a virulent storm track into the British Isles and western Europe through the first part of the winter.

We also have to take a long look at linkage between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the polar westerlies entering the northern Pacific Basin. The connection is very stout now, easily visible on any satellite water vapor imagery. The large impulse near the International Dateline and the Equator will likely be recurrent in a moderate El Nino. That +ENSO marker will shift over time, westward through sectors 3, 3.4, and finally 4. In essence, we go from a basin-wide warming to a Modoki position before the episode breaks up in later spring 2024.

All of this put together (along with the growing snow and ice fields in the Northern Hemisphere) suggest that the 1972-73 and 2009-10 DJFM winter seasons are the best analogs (used three times in the blend of comparison years). We should see enough amplification of the flow for a more widespread cold shot into Canada and the USA after Thanksgiving, this following another wild warm-up in the lower 48 states and Prairie Provinces.

Have a great weekend everyone…and be sure to avoid getting the flu!

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