A mixed bag; a Mexican major hurricane, a Canadian modified Arctic front, and guessing how long warmth in California will last….

Norma sprang to life overnight west of the Mexico Pacific Ocean shoreline, and may briefly be in Category 4 designation today before upper winds start to shear the convective array around the eye of the storm. Since many of you visit the Los Cabos portion of Baja California, I thought it important to mention the slow forward speed of a still-strong hurricane will impact not only that fabled resort area but also the inland Mexican states, West Texas and eastern New Mexico this weekend through next Tuesday.

And about that cold front! With an Omega blocking signature in Alaska, the cold pool forming in the Yukon and Northwest Territories will be forced southward into the Prairie Provinces in the 6-10 day time frame. Snowfall will be likely above the International Border. This is a modified (IcA) regime, NOT a Siberian air mass, and much of the colder air will reach down to the Gulf Coast by October 30. Again, to emphasize, this is not a true wintry domain. Just a nice little reminder that the summer heat is gone.

One location that cannot seem to shake the summer feeling if California. Anyone who knows the climatology of El Nino episodes knows that in a classic Pacific Basin wide +ENSO episode the Golden State should be cooler and wetter as we head through October. But that is not happening, as the southern branch jet stream is far to the south (interacting with Norma this weekend) and 500MB ridging continues to locate in the vicinity. This “warm and dry” run is giving me hints on how the national weather pattern is going to turn out this winter. And the hint that I will leave is that “typical” pattern is not likely to occur nationally in the DJFM semester.

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