I think that I see a storm track pattern emerging.

The basic scenario seems to be storms developing in the Front Range ff Colorado, head toward the lower Great Lakes, and then redevelop in the North Carolina Piedmont before heading to the shoreline of the Mid-Atlantic states. There is a merger process of the polar jet stream and the southern branch (which ejects systems out of Mexico). IF this pattern continues into winter (no guarantees this early), the tendency would be for increasing south and east placement of the energy. That would mean Gulf Coaster and Nor’easter events. With farther south and east advancement of colder air and frozen precipitation.

That speculation aside, as I have already discussed the polar air mass injections this month will not be that impressive. Much of November should be dominated by ImP (Pacific Ocean born) air masses, with a slow build of cold in Canada while the lower 48 states looks mild. We will have to see if the stronger Madden-Julian Oscillation (Phases 6,7,8) remains and if strong typhoons like the current Bolaven are ejected and recurve east of Japan. Because these cyclones will energize a sub-Aleutian vortex, such as seen now. Such mega-storms pump up ridging along the West Coast and around the Arctic Circle, which inevitably favor more cold intrusions east of the Continental Divide. And a more active, further south storm track. This is why the temperature outlines between now and November 1 are mostly skewed warm West vs. cool Central/East.

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