A tale of two storms. One subtropical (pr at least kind of), the other a potential heat reducer.

We may see the disturbance approaching Cape Fear NC acquire a name later today, even though its overall structure is like an extratropical low with a frontal structure and uneven pressure and wind field. The track scenario for this system is north, then breaking up in the Baltimore MD – Washington DC area on Saturday. Heavy rain (2 – 4″) is the chief concern, although I will advise that the chaotic structure of this system may cause predictions to be overdone along its northern and western flanks, or to the left of the Interstate 95 corridor. In any event, another such cyclonic circulation is forecast for late next week, which may further add to needed rain amounts in Appalachia and the Mid-Atlantic.

Another feature to watch is the storm and frontal structure in the Great Plains, which will sag southward over the next 48 hours. With a diffuse cold pool and energy aloft moving headfirst into very hot air in Texas and Oklahoma, strong to severe thunderstorms are probable in some locations that are weary of unending dryness and heated temperatures. But a problem exists in that any relief will prove temporary (cooling demand in the south central states will still be viable in the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods), and many locations in western and southern sections of the Lone Star State will see little or no rain.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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