Three weather features to keep your eye on as advance into an autumn pattern….

1) There is a disturbed area over the Bahamas and the Gulf Stream which needs to be monitored. While likely not a threat to become a hurricane, most of the numerical models grow this area of thunderstorms into a recognizable low pressure center and move the system up the coast. Heavy rainfall is the most likely outcome if the low holds together and stays close to the coastline. Time frame is roughly now through September 25. After that point in time, an anticyclone moving out of Ontario should dry the middle and upper Interstate 95 corridor.

2) The Mexican bubble heat ridge is still around, and shows up sporadically on forecast model guidance as late as October 6. This implies that Texas, especially the western and southern portions of the Lone Star State, will experience periods of hot weather during the next two weeks. The rest of the lower 48 states will have warm spells, but nothing that would rachet up major cooling demand levels.

3) A partial antidote to heat in the south central USA are the frontal structures over the Intermountain Region and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorms associated with those boundaries will tend to drift southeast, as a cool air mass and trough sets up across the western third of the continent. If so, dryness in the middle/lower Great Plains into TX and the Ozark Plateau could see some beneficial moisture during the next week or so.

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