Autumn has a warm start.

Warm does not mean hot, however, since the Mexican bubble heat ridge shows signs of being suppressed next week. If it is any comfort to those who were afflicted with constant 100 deg F weather this past summer, the worst heat for most will probably be in the middle 90s (F). Except for those of you living in the western or southern portion of Texas, closest to the subtropical high.

But if you are looking for the cold front of your dreams to rescue you once and for all from unpleasant periods of heat and humidity, you have come to the wrong place. The pattern set-up, which is increasingly inspired by the El Nino episode, is still semizonal above the ridge complex in the lower latitudes. Troughs along the West Coast will break up over the Intermountain Region, with only minor upper air cold pools and disturbances surviving into the Great Plains and points south and east. Hurricane Nigel, like most of the Atlantic Basin storms this season, will be sheared and recurved so that no major population centers will be affected by the system. Which, by the way, is suffering from dry air ingestion.

One thing to watch will be heavy rain and thunderstorm chances, which may influence the south central and states and Eastern Seaboard this week and next. But if you want a good cold frontal passage in the lower 48 states or in southern Canada, my advice is wait until mid-October.

Share Your Thoughts