The Mexican bubble heat ridge will be an influence once more.

Not a popular idea in Texas, but most model guidance suggests that the most hated feature of the Summer of 2023 (in Texas, at least) is about to make a comeback of sorts. Suppressed for now by a split jet stream configuration across the lower 48 states, the core of the ridge complex will slide northward in the medium and longer ranges to occupy the southern half of the Lone Star State.

In practical terms, this means two things. One, the 100 deg F isotherm will expand northward, roughly just below the Interstate 20 corridor, and perhaps into the TX Panhandle as well. Many of the cities in the Lone Star State that had an inglorious run of hitting the century mark may approach or surpass that reading in the second half of September. Thunderstorm threats and occasional cloudiness might keep the DFW Metroplex out of the worst heat. And while the eastern two-thirds of the USA will have a prolonged period of mild to warm conditions, it is unlikely that anyone outside Texas and the Deep South will see the big heat emerge again until late next spring.

That said, keep cool, and have a nice weekend!

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