Many in the southern and central sections of the U.S. have been upset about what was perceived to be a return of hot weather in the medium range and longer term forecasts. But the truth is that the vaunted heat ridge has been suppressed into Mexico and likely will have little influence outside of the immediate Gulf Coast, South Texas and Florida.
There are two reasons why the warm-up will not generate widespread cooling demand. One is that the upper flow is semizonal, and air masses from the Pacific Ocean will mostly control the national weather pattern through the first week of October. That means the western third of the U.S.. will be cool to normal, with chances for cloudiness and precipitation scattered to the left of the Continental Divide. East of the Rocky Mountains, the downslope flow will be generally warmer than seasonal averages.
The other aspect of keeping the truly hot conditions mostly out of the national picture is that higher relative humidity will allow for more and stronger thunderstorms to populate the eastern two-thirds of the nation. This is a change from previous forecast guidance that suggested mostly dry conditions. Keep in mind that increased atmospheric moisture translates to more clouds and precipitation. Which, of course, cuts back on the ability of the sun to heat the boundary layer. Just like Texas during the next two or three days, which will welcome the convection that suppresses the brutal heat that overstayed its welcome.
From WEATHRERNERDS.org, 6z Sept 14 GEFS track scenarios for Hurricane Lee. Most of the path plots have shifted to the east a bit, and my thinking is that Lee will transition to a strong extratropical cyclone, and pass directly over Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island on its way to Newfoundland this weekend. High winds, heavy rain and surge issues are probable in the Maritime Provinces on Satu8rday into Sunday morning. Lee will largely bypass New England, although Cape Cod MA and Downeast Maine could have some wind and precipitation from the circulation.
1200z Sept 14 METEOBLUE GOES EAST visible image of Hurricane Lee in the Sargasso Sea. Lee is showing signs of transitioning to a subtropical entity, with shear and dry air altering the shape and character of the cyclone.