Changes. We got changes. Partially due to Hurricane Lee.

Lee as of 8 AM September 10 was still struggling with some dry air inhalation and vertical shear issues. But the system will get into a better environment for intensification in about 48 hours, and should start a recurve toward the north-northwest. The first cold front Lee encounters along the East Coast will have no impact on the Lee track and structure. But a second, stronger thermal boundary and trough almost certainly will.

This weekend the hurricane will be string enough to merge with and consolidate the trough complex to its left. After passage west of Bermuda, the tropical cyclone will turn north, deepen and accelerate. There is good agreement among the various numerical models on a path through Nova Scotia in about 6 days. Cooler air will start to fill in behind the circulation as it converts to cold-core over the Maritime Provinces. Thunderstorms will occur from Texas through the Gulf Coast ahead of the modified polar air mass, wiping out most of the incredible heat that has plagued those locations.

While all of this is happening, a southern branch jet stream formation in the eastern Pacific Basin will start to move toward and into California. This is related to the current El Nino episode, and will begin to spread rain and thunderstorms into the Desert and Intermountain Regions, perhaps reaching Texas in the last week of this month. Once that feature is through, then any comeback of the heat (briefly in Dixie in the start of October) will be gone until next spring.

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