Slowly, but surely, autumn weather will be an increased presence in the lower 48 states.

Even though the near term forecast in the south central and eastern parts of the USA is still very hot (with the added misery of higher relative humidity), the numerical models are showing a parceled advance into the nation. The cold front now in the Great Plains will falter, but the cP intrusion behind it in western Canada will be the proverbial “real deal”, reaching Texas and Appalachia next week. This is not a dramatic change, mind you, but presents a chance to increase sunshine, clear and cool the air a bit and make many think about football and not standing in front of an air conditioner to cool off.

It is possible that the heat in Texas and Louisiana could make a brief comeback in the 11-15 day time frame. But a shortwave advancing through the Pacific Ocean into California, aided by tropical moisture in the equatorial region below Mexico, may start a general cooler, wetter pattern across the southern tier of the USA in the third and fourth weeks of this month. Conversely, Canada may get stuck in a warm and dry alignment (if we see the El Nino split flow) that could present problems with risks for wildfires.