The “El Nino Related Changes” coming are subtle, but will be noticeable to many in the USA by the end of this month.

To those of you (like me) bothered by the incessant high heat and aridity in the south central states, “help is on its way”. But as always I advise patience, since the shifts in the upper air pattern that will bring about this “end of summer” scenario will be slow in coming. The broad array of polar westerlies over the Pacific Basin will split, delivering a shortwave into California, with likely cooler air and rains, in the third week of September. As a response, the “heat ridge from hell” will start to be suppressed and ultimately retreat toward the Greater Antilles as we enter October.

But the next ten days will still see what we have witnessed in the JJA semester. Texas will be mostly quite hot, with added increase in relative humidity. The main difference to see is that thunderstorms will become more numerous in much of the lower 48 states, with severe weather threats emerging along the entire length of the Missouri Valley. Cold fronts will continue to pass through the Midwest and Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Because of a trough across the eastern half of the continent, any hurricane threats will likely be deflected out into the open Atlantic Ocean. Which, by the way, has heavily sheared upper wind profiles and may limit the growth and intensification of Invest 95L, which -could- become Lee later this week.

Welcome back to school and work, everyone!